Understanding how tropical cyclone hazards might respond to global warming is importantfor adaptation. In this talk, I will apply a computationally efficient tropical cyclone model to downscalea climate model under a modest future emissions scenario. I will show that the projected tropicalcyclone hazard is very sensitive to the pattern of ocean warming in the tropical Pacific. Given thediscrepancy between the observed and modeled historical pattern of warming in the tropical Pacific, Icreate an alternate future storyline where the warming pattern resembles that of the observations. Inthis scenario, near-term tropical cyclone hazard over coastal Asia and the Atlantic basin increasessignificantly, highlighting the sensitivity of local tropical cyclone hazard to the pattern of warming.* Please note that light refreshments will be served in the atrium from 10:30 AM - 11:00 AM.